“Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies.” (Groucho Marks) Well, here it is only May 2023 and things are already getting interesting for the 2024 elections. What kind of interesting you ask? Well, there’s the serious interesting, and the let’s have sketchy people run for office interesting. Serious Interesting. Sen. Sinema (I-AZ). In 2018 she won the Arizona senate race as a Democrat, became an independent four years later, and developed into a thorn in the side of both parties. If she stands for reelection, then we’ll have a viable three-way race. Rep. Ruben Gallego, (D-AZ3) has already declared, and though Kari Lake – who lost a tight governor race – has not yet announced, she is expected to do so. Sen. Sinema also has not yet declared, but she’s raising campaign cash and the Wall Street Journal reports it obtained information that she’s going to run. The question is not whether Sinema has cross-party appeal, she does. The question is does she have enough cross-party appeal to win as an independent, and if not which party does she hurt more? With the Senate split 51 Democrats to 49 Republicans the Democrats would like to see Sinema sit this race out. Unfortunately for the Democrats, I doubt she cares what they would like. Alas, I didn’t finish writing this when AZ Family News (AZ News) reported that the liberal PAC “Change for Arizona” filed a 27 page FEC Complaint against Sen. Sinema. The complaint alleges that since 2019 the good senator spent over $180,000 of campaign funds to finance a rather lavish lifestyle, including trips to Europe, luxury hotels and spas, expensive restaurants, car services, private flights, etc…often during times when she was not campaigning. Senator Sinema denies she did anything wrong, but at last one independent lawyer who is described as a government ethics “expert” disagrees. AZ News quotes attorney Tom Ryan: When I read this FEC complaint, I was shocked – and I’ve seen a lot of political corruption in my life. You don’t get to mislead donors. You don’t get to take money that’s intended for a public use and turn it into a private benefit, and she has clearly done that in spades. Stay tuned, depending on whether Sen. Sinema decides to run for reelection and what action the FEC takes, we may have to move her to the “Let’s have Sketchy People Run For Office” interesting category. Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA). Seems that the Senator from Massachusetts, who erroneously claimed she was of Native American ancestry, is in a bit of political trouble. A recent poll conducted by The Fiscal Alliance Foundation shows Warren trails a hypothetical matchup with former Republican Governor Charlie Baker – 49% to 34%. I don’t put much stock in polls taken over a year before an election, but for an incumbent to have a 15% deficit in any poll at any time is significant. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. announced he was running for president on April 19, 2023 as a Democrat. Most people view Kennedy’s chances of mounting a serious challenge to Biden as slightly less than zero. We may have to rethink this zero sum game. Though three early polls show Kennedy is trailing significantly, they also show he is more than a nuisance. Rasmussen and Fox News show Kennedy at 19% and Biden at 62%. Emerson has Kennedy at 21% and Biden at 70%. These are significant numbers for three reasons. First, a sitting president usually does not draw a primary challenger, and if they do, the challenger can be ignored because he or she doesn’t poll higher than single digits. Second, Rasmussen notes that Democrats admire Kennedy but are backing Biden. Rasmussen is one of the better pollsters and I’m sure he’s right…as it stands today. However, with the pain voters are feeling now, they could easily change their backing to align with their admiring over the next 12 months. Can Kennedy take the Democrat party nomination from Biden? I doubt it, at least as it stands today, but Kennedy does have some traction. The third reason is the wild card. I believe there’s a pretty good chance RFK Jr. will run as an independent if he can’t get the Democrat nomination. Agree or disagree with him, RFK Jr seems to have more than a bit of cross-party appeal. ABC observed that: “Kennedy, a self-described “lifelong Democrat” through his support of what critics call conspiracies about the COVID-19 vaccines, has garnered support from some unlikely bedfellows on the right.” Add to that Steve Bannon’s observation that “RFK Jr. could jump into the Republican primary for president, and only DeSantis and Trump, I think, would do better.” If Bannon and ABC are correct, there may be enough to convince RFK Jr to run as an independent if he loses in the primary. “I have two words for those of you who think I’m slipping off into conspiracy theory territory.” – Ross Perot. Perot entered the 1992 presidential race against Bush and Clinton and was leading both in June and July. However, he unexpectedly pulled out of the race, then unexpectedly reentered the race. That move coupled with a few other major mistakes sank him, and he ended up with 19% of the popular vote. Perot’s popularity rested on many of the same factors we see today. A bad economy, frustration with both parties, and many seeing the country heading in the wrong direction. Oh, there was one other major factor – a majority of the voters did not like either candidate. Sound familiar? Yes, I know Trump has a strong base and the polls show he’s running away with the Republican primary, at least for now. Biden on the other hand has the strong support of the Democrat Party and is running away with the Democrat primary, at least for now. But as I wrote before, no candidate can win the presidency by riding his … Continue reading Five Short Takes In 2023 On the 2024 Election