“Reason must be our last judge and guide in everything.” (John Locke)
The cautious part of me says ‘don’t write this,’ while the ‘rebel without a clue’ part of me says – ‘just write the damn thing.’ Yea, who am I kidding, I don’t have a cautious part, so as always, I’m going with the clueless part.
I can’t remember who said it, but I found this the most accurate and pithy summation of Trump’s presidency: “he has the best policies and worst personality of any president in the last century and a half.” I would add that his inability to use precise language coupled with his personal attacks on those he disagrees with caused problems getting things done in his first term. Unfortunately, I’ve seen no evidence that he’s changed, which will likely result in as much chaos in his second administration (if he has one) as there was in his first.
More importantly, I question whether he can get elected. Both Republicans and Democrats think they, and they alone determine elections. They don’t. They determine who wins their respective primary. Independents determine who gets elected to office.
According to Gallop, as of April 2023, the political affiliation of voters in the U.S. is: Democrats – 27%; Republicans – 30%; and Independents – 41%. As can be seen, neither party can win a Presidential election, or any election, without the Independent vote. Even assuming “leaners” – those independents who lean towards one of the parties – vote for the party they “lean” towards, fails to get either party to the magical 50% figure. Instead, Democrats come in at 40%, and Republicans at 48%. That means the block that will decide the election are the 12% of Independents who lean towards neither party. In short, to win a Presidential election you must win the Independents.1
Many Independents I’ve talked to find a Trump candidacy less than optimal, and often unacceptable. Granted many also find Biden even more unacceptable, but that does not mean they’ll vote for Trump…there’s two other choices. Stay home and vote for neither or cast a protest vote and vote for a 3rd party. The Independents staying home or casting a protest vote is almost as bad as if they voted for Biden.
Unless something major changes, I just don’t see Independents breaking for Trump. If I’m correct, then Trump can’t win. If I’m wrong and Trump wins, there’s a very good chance that his personality will result in four years of chaos and alienate those he needs to push his policies through Congress.
The belief that Trump lacks wide and deep voter appeal is supported by how candidates he endorsed did in 2022 midterm races.2 Everyone points to the fact that in the midterms 241 of the 257 candidates Trump endorsed won. While true, these numbers are misleading. What people ignore is that only 41 of those races were rated by Ballotpedia as “battleground races” and only 21 as “toss-ups” by Real Clear Politics (RCP).
Ballotpedia’s “battleground races” are those The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, or Sabato’s Crystal Ball rate as toss-ups or lean/tilt Democratic or Republican. In the 41 battleground races Trump endorsed candidates won 16 (39%) and lost 25 (61%). If Trump’s voter appeal is as broad and deep as people say, then these numbers should be inverted, with 61% of Trump endorsed candidates winning. And yet, here we are.
I think an even better measure of voter appeal is how Trump endorsed candidates did in races rated as “toss-ups” by Real Clear Politics’ (RCP), which does not include races that lean/tilt towards one of the parties. Trump endorsed 21 candidates in races RCP rated as a toss-up. The results:
- 6 for the House of Representatives – one won and five lost.
- 6 for the Senate – one won and five lost.
- 9 for governor races, two won and seven lost.
Trump’s record of 17 (81%) loses and 4 (19%) wins in toss-up races is abysmal.3 The inability to exceed 50% in competitive races indicates Trump’s voter appeal may be a mile wide, but it’s only an inch deep.
What I find perplexing, is why so many are dead set on nominating Trump. Especially since there are so many proven Republicans with the same policy goals, but without the speak first/think later mentality. Governor DeSantis (FL) is obviously one. Sen. Tim Scott (SC), Governor Kristi Noem (SD), Sen. Ted Cruz (TX), Governor Youngkin (VA), and Nikki Haley (SC) are all worth considering. All of these people are pretty much committed to advancing the same policies Trump is, and most of them have a track record of not only working to implement those policies but doing so more efficiently than Trump. An additional benefit is that these people, with the possible exception of Sen. Cruz and Nikki Haley have greater appeal among independents than Trump.
At this point, Trump’s major strength in the 2024 election is his presumed opponent – President Biden – who will be 82 when the next President takes office and has mental acuity issues. Additionally, a whopping 66% of Americans believe a second Biden term would be a Disaster or a Setback.
But what happens if Biden is not the Democrat’s nominee? I believe there’s more than a slight chance that his health, physical and/or mental will force him to withdraw from the presidential race. If that happens, Trump losses his biggest asset – a politically weak Biden.
RFK Jr has already entered the Democrat’s primary and is currently polling 20%. Not enough to win the party’s nomination…at least for now. However, if Biden drops out of the race, then RFK Jr. becomes a contender. He’s already at 20% among Democrats and his stance on the COVID vaccine has given him some cross-party appeal as well as support among some Independents. Then there’s Governor Newsom (D-CA) waiting for the chance to jump in. He doesn’t have cross-party appeal, but he does appeal to many Democrats and more than a few Independents. If either one of these two become the Democrat’s nominee, then Trump not only lost his biggest asset – a Biden opponent – but also becomes the old man of the race.
Then there’s the wild card. Will RFK Jr. run as an independent if he loses his party’s nomination? His cross-party appeal and support among Democrats and Independents frustrated with both Biden and Trump may be enough to convince him to do the Ross Perot thing and make it a three-way race. Could RFK Jr. win a three-way free for all? Doubtful, but he could prevent both Biden and Trump from getting the required 270 electoral votes and send the decision of who will be the next president to the House of Representatives. In that case, each state gets one vote, which means that the representatives from each state must decide how their state will vote. The current break down of the House of Representatives by state is 26 controlled by Republicans, 22 controlled by Democrats, and two tied. (see notes for breakdown by state).
I’m not saying to vote for anyone but Trump, nor am I saying Trump can’t win. What I am saying, is if Trump becomes the Republican presidential candidate, he has some high hurdles to overcome to win the general election. Therefore, it’s in the best interest of people who favor his policies to at least consider other candidates who have the same policy goals, but who are stronger presidential candidates.
If you think I’m wrong, then change my mind and email me at Taz@JesterPolitics.com.
Notes:
1 There are only 31 states that require party affiliation when a person registers and to the best of my knowledge, Gallop does not poll party affiliation by state. Therefore, given the electoral college it is not possible for me to categorically state that a party cannot under any circumstances win a Presidential election without the Independent vote. Theoretically if all, or the vast majority of Independents lived in a couple of states with few electoral votes, then the parties would control their own destiny. However, the odds of this being the case are extremely low…about the same as the odds of my alma mater – Notre Dame – winning the 2022-2023 NCAA National Football Championship.
2 I define “competitive races” as those Real Clear Politics identified as toss-up races in their last update before the midterm elections. The information for the Senate, the House, and the Governor races.