To Trump Or Not To Trump?
“We do not have government by the majority. We have government by the majority who participate.” (Thomas Jefferson)
I first published this over at The Wondering Rebel back in November 2022. But since Trump has established himself as the Republican front runner, at least for the time, I thought I should update it a bit and publish it again at Jester Politics.
The cautious part of me says – don’t do this, it’ll upset a lot of people…not a good thing when trying to expand your readership. The clueless part says – screw it, just publish the damn thing. Alas, I’m too old to try something new, so I’m going with the clueless part.
I think Trump should enjoy Florida, play some golf, do a little surfing, and sit this one out.
I can’t remember who said it, but I found this the most accurate and pithy summation of Trump’s time as president “he has the best policies and worst personality of any president in the last century and a half.” I would add his inability to use precise language and his use of personal attacks caused significant chaos during his first term. Unfortunately, I’ve seen no evidence that he’s changed. To the contrary, if anything his personal attacks have become more caustic.
Does he have reason to be bitter? Yea, I think so. He’s been hounded by prosecutors in at least two states and the DOJ, investigated by Congress at least three times, and impeached twice. All of which were unjustified or blatant unequal treatment under the law. But none of that erases the fact that his shortcomings only increase the likelihood that his second administration (if he has one) will be more chaotic than his first and therefore, less effective, if not ineffective.
More importantly, I question whether he can get elected. Both Republicans and Democrats like to think they, and they alone determine elections. They don’t. They determine who wins their respective primary. Independents determine who gets elected to office.
According to Gallop, as of October 2022, the political affiliation of voters in the U.S. is: Democrats – 29%; Republicans – 33%; and Independents – 35%. As can be seen, neither party can win a Presidential election, or really any election, without the Independent vote. Even assuming “leaners” – those Independents who lean towards one of the parties – vote for the party they “lean” towards, fails to get either party to the magical 50% plus one. Instead, Democrats come in at 42%, and Republicans at 48%. That means the block that will decide the election are those Independents that make up the remaining 10% of the electorate. In short, to win a Presidential election you must win the Independents.1
I can’t speak for all Independents, but I can speak for myself and those I’ve talked to – all of us find a Trump candidacy less than optimal at best, and often unacceptable. Even if Independents won’t vote for whoever the Democrat nominee eventually is, many won’t vote for Trump either, they’ll just abstain…which is almost as bad as if they voted for the Democrat.
An indication of Trump’s voter appeal is how candidates he endorsed did in the 2022 midterm races. Everyone points to the fact that Trump endorsed 254 Candidates in those elections, and 83% or 211 won their respective election. An outstanding result, yes? No, it’s not. Depending on whether you use BallotPedia or Real Clear Politics (RCP) 233 or 219 of the races in which Trump endorsed a candidate were rated as non-competitive – safe Republican or strongly leans Republican. To determine voter appeal you must look at how Trump endorsed candidates did in competitive races, and here his record is abmysmal.2
RCP shows that Trump endorsed 21 candidates in races rated as a toss-up:
- 6 for the House of Representatives: five lost and one won.
- 6 for the Senate: five lost, and one won.
- 9 for governor: seven lost and two won.
Trump’s combined record is 17 loses and 4 wins.3 A 19% win rate in races RCP rated as toss-up is far south of poor.
Trump did a bit better in races BallotPedia rated as “battleground races” – races The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, or Sabato’s Crystal Ball rated as toss-ups or lean/tilt Democratic or Republican. In these races Trump endorsed candidates won 14 races and lost 21, for a 38%-win rate. Still not good, in fact, still poor.
Whether you use RCP’s “toss-Up” rating or BallotPedia’s “Battle Ground,” the result is the same – Trump’s voter appeal may be a mile wide, but it’s only an inch deep.
Unless something changes, I just don’t see Independents breaking for Trump. If I’m correct, then Trump can’t win. If I’m wrong and Trump does win, his divisive personality will result in four years of chaos and the alienation of those he needs to push his policies through Congress.
What I find perplexing, is why so many Republicans are dead set on nominating Trump. Especially since there are so many proven Republicans with the same policy goals, but without the divisive personality and the speak first – think later mentality. It’s still early but so far Governor DeSantis (FL) and Senator Tim Scot (SC) have entered the Republican primary race. Both have established they support many, if not all the same policies as Trump, both have proven to be more effective than Trump, and both have greater voter appeal than Trump, especially among the crucial Independent block.
Don’t get me wrong, I’d vote for Attila the Hun before I voted for Biden, Newsom, or any of the other pro-war and anti-civil liberty people waiting in the wings of the Democrat’s big tent. But how many other Independents feel the same?
As President Obama said: “Elections have consequences.” I urge everyone to set aside emotion when deciding who you’re going to support in the 2024 primaries.
If you think I’m wrong, then change my mind, as always the comments are open.
Notes:
1 There are only 31 states that require party affiliation when a person registers and to the best of my knowledge, Gallop does not poll party affiliation by state. Therefore, given the electoral college it is not possible for me to categorically state that a party cannot under any circumstances win a Presidential election without the Independent vote. Theoretically if all, or the vast majority of Independents lived in a couple of states with few electoral votes, then the parties would control their own destiny. However, the odds of this being the case are extremely low…about the same as the odds of my alma mater – Notre Dame – winning the 2022-2023 NCAA National Football Championship.
2 I define “competitive races” as those Real Clear Politics identified as toss-up races in their last update before the midterm elections. The information for the Senate, the House, and the Governor races.
3 Trump endorsed 257 candidates in the 2022 midterm elections, 241 of those were called at the time of publishing this article. Of the 241 races, Trump endorsed candidates won 213. However, most of these were in safe seats.