Taz’s Voodoo magic 2024 Election update

Taz’s Voodoo magic 2024 Election update #2:

Is New Jersey in play? There’s a lot of polling coming out that measures, or attempts to measure, how the national popular vote is going to break. However, presidential elections are decided by how the states vote, not by the national vote. There are 535 electoral votes apportioned between the states based on their population. Additionally, DC is allocated 3 electoral votes for a total of 538. In order to win the presidency, a candidate must win a majority vote in enough individual states to capture 270 electoral votes.

Therefore, it is not only possible to lose the national vote and win the presidency, but it has happened five times:

– John Quincy Adams, 6th president;

– Rutherford B. Hayes, 19th President;

– Benjamin Harrison, 23rd President;

– George W. Bush, 41st President; and

– Donald Trump, 45th President

Further, Bill Clinton never won 50% of the popular vote, yet was elected president twice.

– 1992 Clinton won 43%, Bush 37.4%, & Perot 18.9%.

– 1996 Clinton won 49.2%, Dole 40.7% & Perot 8.4%.

So while winning the national popular vote is nice, it is the states and their electoral votes that are important. I bring this up because I believe there may be a shift occurring in New Jersey. Well there is a shift occurring in NJ, I just don’t know how big the shift is. NJ has been deep blue for almost ever. The last Republican NJ elected to the U.S. Senate was Case in 1972 – 52 years ago. The last time NJ threw it’s electoral votes to a Republican presidential candidate was 1988 – 36 years ago when it backed Bush over Dukakis. But I believe there’s a chance NJ’s 14 electoral votes are in play for the ’24 election. I’m crazy you say? Well, let’s see. Trump held a rally in NJ today that has been described as a “massive” rally attended by thousands – or tens of thousands – of people depending on which article you choose to believe.

In any event, the rally was indeed massive and legitimately raises the question of whether NJ might be in play for the ’24 election. Though I believe the number of people who attend a political rally may be indicative of a politician’s support in the state, I do not believe it’s conclusive, or even the best measure. So lets look at some numbers:

– In 2020 Biden won NJ by 19.5 points over Trump, 59.2% to 39.7%. T

hose are some big numbers to overcome. Especially given that the last time NJ voted for a Republican presidential candidate was 1988. But this year things are shaping up different.

Since NJ is not considered a battle ground state,* state specific polling for the presidential race is scarce.

In fact I could only find one NJ specific poll taken this year – The Hill/Emerson poll conducted from March 26-29. This poll, which normally leans Democrat, has Biden up by only 7 points, 46% to 39%, which is 12.5 points less than Biden carried the state by in 2020 – a huge decrease for Biden.

What does a massive Trump rally and Biden leading by only 7 points in a poll that traditionally leans Democrat mean? I think it means that there’s a chance NJ will become, if it hasn’t already become, a battle ground state with its 14 electoral votes up for grabs.

I’m not saying NJ is going to break for Trump. There’s not enough information for me to go out on that limb. Instead, I’m saying the massive rally coupled with the polling data, as thin as it is, indicates that Trump should expend some time and effort in NJ. If he can move that state into the toss-up category, then Biden will be rocked back on his heals.

* I posted about what are currently considered the 8 battle ground states on May 3 and am going to update my thoughts on them monthly through October. That post is here: