Let Europe Handle It

Let Europe Handle It

“I hope our wisdom will grow with our power, and teach us, that the less we use our power the greater it will be.” (Thomas Jefferson)

After watching the exchange between President Trump, President Zelenskyy and Vice-President Vance I have a few thoughts.

As an initial matter, the U.S. cannot force Zelenskyy to seek peace.  Ukraine is an independent nation and as such, if they want to continue fighting an unwinnable war, at least unwinnable without western troops, then so be it.

I also want to clarify that people are not pro-Russian merely because they oppose providing further military aid to Ukraine, and certainly not for opposing sending American troops to Ukraine.  I neither like nor support Putin, in fact I spent half my career playing tag with the Soviets in the Western Pacific and North Atlantic.  So, I have no love for Putin and would be rooting for his demise if I was sure his successor wouldn’t be even worse.  So, for any who want to engage in ad hominem attacks and call me a Russian stooge…go ahead, it just makes you look foolish.  However, for those who want to voice their disagreement with my position, and not my looks, then by all means let’s have a discussion.

The argument often put forward by Zelenskyy and the neocons that Ukraine is preventing Russia from invading Europe and the U.S. is nonsense.  Russia has spent three years trying to overrun a significantly weaker military power – and has not only failed but has also suffered tremendous casualties and material losses.  Given this fact, do you honestly believe Russia has the military ability to overrun Europe?  The only way Russia could accomplish that feat, is if the Europeans continue to refuse to adequately invest in their defense.  Granted, that’s a possibility given the Europeans have grossly neglected their militaries for the last 64 years or so. However, if they continue to do so, is that not Europe’s problem?  I mean they can hardly demand that we shed our blood because they are too cheap to invest in their defense.

Additionally, screaming Russia will overrun Europe except for Ukraine, ignores the reality that both France and the UK are nuclear powers.  I fully agree that Putin and most, if not all of those in his government, want to reestablish Russia as a world power.  However, everyone in the Russian government is a pragmatist who knows that a direct confrontation with Europe could easily escalate to a nuclear exchange, something none of them want to risk.  That’s why Russia limits its armed aggression to countries that were once part of the USSR; and to expanding, or at least attempting to expand, its influence in the Middle East and Africa.[1]  By confining its armed aggression to these areas, Russia, at most, risks a proxy war but avoids a direct conflict with nuclear powers that could escalate to a nuclear exchange.

The U.S. has also provided $175 billion dollars in military and civil aid to Ukraine while we are more than $36.5 trillion in debt.  We simply cannot afford to continue to pump billions into a European country that quiet honestly has no hope of pushing Russia out of its territory.  They do not have the manpower, which brings me to my next point.

Zelenskyy and the French have already started floating the idea of committing western troops  to Ukraine in “non-combat roles” – like training Ukrainian troops.  Sound familiar?  It should, our involvement in Vietnam started with thirty Special Forces troops sent there in 1960  to perform the non-combat role of ‘training troops.’  Fifteen years later when the “Vietnam Era” officially ended we had lost 58,148 dead and an estimated 304,000 wounded.[2]  Those men and women were lost fighting a war that did not involve our national interests.  As much as I would like Ukraine to prevail, they too are involved in a war that does not involve our national interests. Therefore, we should keep our troops out – out of both the war and any “security guarantee” the Ukrainians and Europeans want us to provide.  It is simply not worth the risk of us getting involved in another war that does not involve our national interests, especially a direct war with a nuclear power.

For those claiming the U.S. provided Ukraine security guarantees for giving up their nuclear weapons, stop, just stop.  That claim is false.  What we did was enter into the Budapest Memorandum of 1994 with Russia, Ukraine, and the UK.  Under this agreement Ukraine gave up its nuclear weapons and all parties agreed to respect Ukraine’s territorial integrity.  Obviously Russia violated that agreement, but we have not.  To the contrary, we have greatly exceeded our obligations.  Don’t believe me?  Take the five minutes required to read the Memorandum and you will see that nowhere does it even hint at security guarantees.  Simply put, the U.S. never provided any security guarantees to Ukraine and is under no obligation to provide military or financial assistance to them.

Europe has been making a lot of demands of the U.S. involving aid to, and security guarantees for, Ukraine.  When we decline to indulge them, they threaten to take the lead.  Good for them, after all Ukraine is in Europe.  Alas, I am not optimistic.  From 1962 through 2022 the Europeans, or at least the European Union members, cut their defense spending as a percentage of GDP from a high of 3.95% to 1.56%.  To be sure, during the same period the U.S. cut defense spending too – from its high of 9.45% of GDP to 3.45%.  However, we are still spending twice as much as a percentage of GDP than the Europeans.  The dollar amount is even more stark.  In 2022 the U.S. spent $876.94 billion on defense compared to the EU’s $258.33 billion – $618.61 billion (339.5%) more than the entire EU..in a single year!  However, I think a better way of viewing U.S. verses EU defense spending is on a per capita basis.  The EU’s population is 448 million compared to the U.S. population of 343.6 million, which means in 2022 the EU spent $577 per person on defense while the U.S. spent $2,552 per person, or 4.4 times as much per person.

European Union Military Spending 1960-2025

Even after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, European NATO members did not meet their obligation to spend 2% of their GDP on defense until 2024 -three years after the invasion, and then they spent the bare minimum – 2.02% on defense.  Even now, nine of the 32 NATO members have not met their 2% obligation, including, among others, Canada, whose Prime Minister had the gall to lecture us on Ukraine today.

I don’t understand why the U.S. should continue to spend money and potentially put our troops at risk to solve a European problem that in all probability would not have occurred if the Europeans had not neglected their militaries for at least the last 64 years.  This is especially true since there have been two relatively recent wars in Europe  – the Bosnian War (1992-95) and the Kosovo War (1998-99) – both of which were brutal and both of which the Europeans learned nothing from.

In summary, I hope Europe does build a viable military and becomes militarily independent from the U.S.  It’s been 79 years since the end of WW II and 35 years since the fall of the Berlin Wall – it’s long past time that Europe stopped relying on the U.S. military and treasury for its security.  As for President Zelenskyy, if he decides to continue to fight a war with Russia, then I wish him and the Ukrainians all the best.  However, unless they get European and/or American troops, it is a war Ukraine cannot win.  And I, and I believe Trump, are adamantly opposed to committing American troops to the Ukrainian war, which like Nam is a war that does not involve our national interests.  I am also opposed to providing security guarantees to Ukraine as well as continuing to fund a war that cannot be won and one the Ukrainian leadership does not want to seek an end to, except on the condition of entangling the U.S. in further security guarantees for yet another European country.

Since Europe disagrees, then the ball is in their court.  They are free to continue to fund Ukraine’s war with Russia, put troops on the ground, and provide security guarantees if they desire.  Just leave the U.S. out of it.

[1] Ukraine was part of the USSR from its founding in 1922 until 1991.

[2] Officially the “Vietnam Era” is August 5, 1964, to May 7, 1975.